The early projections for Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2025 show a decline from this year’s 3.2% and significantly lower than 8.7% from the previous year per say. The Senior Citizens League’s projections put the 2025 increase at the rate of 1.75%. The increase is based on the latest figures from the January Consumer Price Index. This is for the Urban Wage Warners and Clerical Workers which came in at 2.9%.
TSCL’s COLA changes month to month based on the most recent CPI data. It will likely change significantly before the final determination is made based off figures. It is in the third quarter of the year – July, August and September – when compared to the same period a year before. TSCL said that In other words, there are another eight months of data to come in, and a lot could change.
It estimated lower than that of the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate which projects the COLA at 2.5%. CBO uses a different methodology than TSCL’s, the group explained, but “clearly, inflation rates are expected to fall from 2023 levels and the COLA for 2025 will also be lower.”
If the 1.75% projection keeps up, it would be the smallest increase since 2020 when the COLA was 1.3%. It peaked up to 5.9% in 2021 before the large increase to 8.7% in 2022, the biggest COLA since 1981′s 11.2%.